UK election will be no coronation

It would be crazy to take today's Observer poll and say that the Tories' chances of being the next government are sliding. But I am not the only one who has been questioning their supposedly unassailable lead. Seems to me that their support is a mile wide and an inch deep. They are still on track to win against a tired Labour government, but it won't take much to make a real fight of it. Some random thoughts:

-- Was it The Sun? Their attack on Gordon Brown over a hand written note to a grieving mother who lost her son in Afghanistan had a remarkable effect. It made Brown look picked on and brought to light his evident emotion about the war dead.

-- Was it Cameron? His last two appearances on The Andrew Marr Show have been horrible. He comes across as peevish and not entirely likable. Add that to the Toff image and you have problems.

-- Was it Europe? The Lisbon Treaty came into force and the sky did not fall in. EU leaders also showed how nonthreatening the whole thing is buy appointing a couple of probably competent nonentities to the top posts (see previous post)

Another poll will likely come along soon, putting the Tories back up again. But this one at least showed that the road is open for surprises and that, thank goodness, next year's election will not be a coronation.

Two good choices for Britain in Europe

While the choice of Herman van Rompuy to be European Union president is hardly bracing, there is plenty in it to please Britons. First, of course, he is not Tony Blair -- so that vomit-inducing prospect can be dismissed (see previous post). But even without that, van Rompuy's ascension can be greeted with polite applause.

The supposedly media-shy Belgian is likely to be just the kind of president Britain really wants. His job is not, of course, EU president. He will be president of the EU council, the group that is made up of member states. He will be president as in preside -- not a swashbuckling leader like they elect in America. Just what the British doctor ordered, someone to do what the council wants it to. Long live the Union of Nation States.

Next, his appointment allowed the second job, foreign policy chief, to go to a Brit, Catherine Ashton. I would fibbing if I said I knew much about her. But I do know that the main reason she got the job is that the EU wants Britain firmly within it foreign policy portfolio. With our links to Washington, the Commonwealth and the UN Security Council, we are to EU foreign affairs what Germany is to its economy and monetary policy. Ashton should combat some of Britain's euro-scepticism by showing that we can be part of the centre.

Both these choices are good for Britain. A president who will be a chairman and one of our own in charge of what we are most interested in. Now if only the Tories don't screw it up.